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COLORADO’S COVID-19

DIAL FRAMEWORK

Revised date: 04/04/2021

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During this pandemic, the state is working to make life as sustainable as possible, while ensuring

we do not surpass our public health and health care capacities. Carefully maintaining the

effective reproductive or R number at or below 1 helps prevent the exponential spread of the

COVID-19 virus. Different levels of “openness” that are standardized at the county level will help

maintain this delicate balance. This framework recognizes unique local circumstances and uses

an intuitive dial to visualize a community’s success in containing the spread of COVID-19. By

increasing simplicity and predictability, we can give local communities another tool to make life

amidst the pandemic more sustainable until COVID-19 vaccines become widely available. This

dial went into effect Tuesday, September 15, 2020, and was updated to include a sixth level on

November 20, 2020. Dial 2.0, with increased incidence metrics for each level, went into effect on

February 6, 2021. On March 24, the state implemented Dial 3.0, which makes it easier for counties

to enter Level Green and loosens some restrictions in Level Blue.

We heard from stakeholders that

the colors should match Colorado’s

iconic fire-risk warning system. So,

we switched to make the green for

Protect Our Neighbors, and the blue

for Level Blue: Caution. We also

flipped it to match the orientation

as the fire warning system, with the

left side for the least risk, and the

right for the most risk.

THIS DIAL HAS SIX LEVELS:

• Level Green: Protect Our Neighbors

• Level Blue: Caution

• Level Yellow: Concern

• Level Orange: High Risk

• Level Red: Severe Risk

• Level Purple: Extreme Risk

The goal of each level is to strike that important balance between enabling economic and social

activity while ensuring that our testing, contact tracing, and health care systems are able to

contain the virus. Each level is defined by objective scientific metrics and has associated capacity

limitations. A community will move between levels based on the metrics and based on local and

state consultation to ensure unique local factors are appropriately considered. This tool will add

simplicity and predictability to how we open -- or close -- based on virus transmission levels.

This tool can be used by communities to implement locally-driven strategies to achieve the

desired level.

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WHAT DO THESE LEVELS MEAN?

Each county is at one of six levels. Each level has associated capacity restrictions.

At one end of the spectrum is Level Green: Protect Our Neighbors, the level where a county is able

to exercise local control over reopening. At the other end of the spectrum is Level Purple: Extreme

Risk, which entails significant closures.

In between Level Green and Level Purple are four intermediate levels as defined by the public

health order. Level Yellow: Concern is the baseline, meaning it reflects the Safer at Home

capacities we followed in the spring of 2020. There is a less restrictive level -- Level Blue: Caution,

for counties that have low virus transmission, but have not yet achieved Protect Our Neighbors.

A more restrictive level -- Level Orange: High Risk --, is for counties that are seeing increases in

the metrics and need to take action. The second-most restrictive level, Level Red: Severe Risk, is

for counties with high levels of transmission, hospitalizations, and positivity rates. Most indoor

activities are prohibited or strictly limited, and outdoor activities are encouraged as an alternative.

In this way, we’ve moved away from reopening as a lightswitch (open or closed), and added more

steps where communities can gradually reopen or become more restrictive based on what is

happening with the virus locally.

WHAT METRICS DEFINE THESE LEVELS?

There is no one metric that tells the full story, but

together, three key metrics can help us understand

the fuller picture. These metrics are:

1. New cases -- a measure of how much the virus

is circulating in a community.

2. Percent positivity of COVID tests -- a measure

of how widespread infection is and whether

there is sufficient testing occurring.

3. Impact on hospitalizations -- a measure

of the impact on hospitals and how many

cases are severe, by looking at the number

of new hospital admissions and whether

hospitalizations are increasing, stable, or

declining.

In our draft, we proposed six

metrics. We revised this down to

three in response to stakeholder

feedback that the metrics must be

simple and objective. Additional

metrics, such as the other three we

proposed -- the direction of the

epidemiological trend, anticipated

future risk factors, and progress

towards achieving Protect Our

Neighbors all are important but are

best interpreted while considering

local context. So, they may -- and

should -- be discussed during

consultations between state and

local officials but are not part of

measuring the dial phase.