Morgan Tsvangirai has become prime minister of Zimbabwe. He may be in office, but not in power

The great gamble

Zimbabwe - The great gamble | Middle East & Africa | The Economist

But Arab students are looking to America for inspiration

University protests about Gaza spread to the Middle East

Rumours about downpours in Dubai and rosé in Riyadh stem from a lack of trust

Gulf governments are changing, but not how they talk to citizens

Poverty is rife and inequality still starkly racial

How South Africa has changed 30 years after apartheid

Binyamin Netanyahu may be losing the plot

Israel’s prime minister does not know where to go

More than a quarter of the region’s 400m people live in states dominated by armed groups

The Middle East has a militia problem

Middle East & Africa

span

MORGAN TSVANGIRAI, the leader of Zimbabwe's opposition party, has taken a brave step. On Wednesday February 11th, more than ten months after success for his Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) in the first round of presidential and parliamentary elections, Mr Tsvangirai became prime minister. In theory at least, he will share power with the man who swore him into office: President Robert Mugabe, who has ruled Zimbabwe since 1980.

The deal to share office was brokered by Zimbabwe's neighbours. Up until the last moment, there had been doubts as to whether Mr Tsvangirai would agree to enter the new “unity” government. He had set several conditions for his participation, including the release of MDC and human-rights activists who had been abducted, tortured and detained for months by government security forces on largely trumped-up charges. None has been set free. In the end, and under some pressure, he appears to have felt that a bad deal was better for his wretched compatriots than no deal at all.

Zimbabwe, once one of the most prosperous countries in Africa, is in a dire state. Millions now depend on food aid; many are starving. A spreading cholera epidemic has killed over 3,300 so far, with nearly 70,000 infected. Health, sanitation and education systems are all in a state of collapse. Hyperinflation is running at unimaginable levels. The central bank has now agreed to allow foreign currencies to be accepted as legal tender alongside the local (near worthless) Zimbabwe dollar. But this will only make life more difficult for those without access to the American dollar or South African rand.

All these troubles now fall on Mr Tsvangirai's plate. Even though the MDC won 100 parliamentary seats in the elections last March—one more than Mr Mugabe's party—it has been allocated only 13 of the 31 ministries in the new government. Mr Mugabe's Zanu-PF gets 15, with the remaining three going to another small opposition party led by Arthur Mutambara, which holds just ten parliamentary seats. Responsibility for the hotly contested home-affairs ministry, which oversees the police, is to be split between Zanu-PF and the MDC. Mr Mugabe remains in control of the armed forces. Tendai Biti, a fiery human-rights lawyer and the reputed brains behind the MDC, has been given the unenviable post of finance minister.

The whole shaky set-up is to be monitored by a joint 12-member committee comprising four senior officials from each of the three parties. It is supposed to check compliance with what has been agreed and to seek to resolve any disputes. If it cannot, the disputes are to be referred first to the Southern African Development Community (SADC), a 15-member regional group which, after months of deadlock, succeeded in ramming the deal through on January 28th. If it fails, the matter will be referred to the African Union.

Many fear that the MDC leader will simply be used by Mr Mugabe as a scapegoat for the country's seemingly insuperable ills, leaving the wily president, who turns 85 next week, in control of all the levers of real power. Ominously, the president is apparently free to fire his prime minister at any time for alleged incompetence, real or imagined.

South Africa's president, Kgalema Montlanthe, has hailed the deal as a vindication of his country's much-criticised approach of “quiet diplomacy” to the ongoing crisis, calling on the rest of the world to come to the aid of Zimbabweans. But scepticism is understandable. Both the United States and Britain have indicated that they will wait to see how the unity government performs before removing sanctions against Mr Mugabe and his allies in or resuming aid.

Zimbabwe

Middle East and Africa

Get to grips with a region where capital, climate and geopolitics collide

Go deeper with our Middle East newsletter. Every week our correspondents delve into the political, social and economic stories of a region that is rarely out of the news.

Sign up to our Middle East newsletter

Middle East Dispatch

Follow the action in Latin America, from the depths of the Brazilian Amazon to the Mexican-American border

Every week our correspondents share insights on politics, economics and business from an increasingly complex region

Stay informed with our weekly Latin America newsletter

El Boletín

A sharp round-up of the most important US political news

Sign up for updates from our correspondents and data journalists, poll tracker and election-forecast model as the 2024 race unfolds

The US in brief

Inside Europe, from the front lines in Ukraine to the corridors of power in Brussels

Stay informed with our weekly Europe newsletter

Café Europa

Understand a vast and complicated country that will increasingly shape the future

Stay informed with our weekly India newsletter

Essential India

The best of The Economist’s defence coverage, in one place

The War Room

A weekly conversation about culture. Because culture is a serious business

Exploring trends and connections across entertainment, the arts and politics

Broaden your perspective with our weekly culture newsletter

Plot Twist

Analysing the challenges facing Britain and what needs to be done to overcome them

Stay informed with our weekly Britain newsletter

Blighty

Understand what the world makes of China—and what China makes of the world

Stay informed with our weekly China newsletter

Drum Tower

Your essential guide to global business and technology

From supply chains to semiconductors, The Bottom Line newsletter has you covered

Need to track the megatrends shaping business and technology?

The Bottom Line

Catch up quickly on the global stories that matter

Sign up to enjoy a mind-expanding mix of stories, delivered six days a week

Catch up quickly on the stories that matter

The World in Brief

A behind-the-scenes look at how we chose and designed this week’s cover

How we chose this week’s cover image

Cover Story

Exclusive insight from our correspondents in America

Exclusive insight and reading recommendations from our correspondents in America

Checks and Balance

A weekly fix of our mind-expanding science coverage

Curious about the world? Enjoy a weekly fix of our mind-expanding science coverage

Simply Science

Climate-change analysis that you won’t read elsewhere in The Economist

The Climate Issue

Expert analysis of the biggest stories in economics and markets

Money Talks

Taking you behind the scenes of our data journalism

Off the Charts

Long reads and life from 1843 magazine

The Extraordinary Story

The very best of our journalism, handpicked for you each weekday

A daily newsletter with the best of our journalism

Handpicked stories, in your inbox

The Economist today

Highlights from the latest weekly issue, introduced by our editor

The great gamble

Morgan Tsvangirai has become prime minister of Zimbabwe. He may be in office, but not in power

More from Middle East and Africa

University protests about Gaza spread to the Middle East

Gulf governments are changing, but not how they talk to citizens

How South Africa has changed 30 years after apartheid