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What role should social listening play in the mitigation of social risk?

RANE Insights: Understanding the Public Perception of DEI

Assessments

Brazil

Colombia

Iran

Israel

Palestinian Territories

China

Germany

India

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (C) April 12 in Dausa, India.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Indian Elections, Scholz Goes to China

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Europe

Glass-like molecules float against a green and purple background.

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

The European Union's gradual adoption of green hydrogen will bolster its energy security and create new global energy relations.

Europe's Green Hydrogen Future, Part 2: Charting the Path

Lebanon

What are Israel and Hezbollah's goals from their escalating tit-for-tat exchanges?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for Israel and Hezbollah's Border Crisis

Niger

United States

What are Niger's security options going forward?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for Niger's Security Landscape

Nigeria

Nigerian naira banknotes on Jan. 28, 2016, in Lagos, Nigeria.

Despite the government's commitment to fiscal prudence and macroeconomic and currency reforms, economic conditions in Nigeria will remain challenging in 2024 and 2025 amid modest economic growth and high inflation, keeping the risk of socioeconomic unrest and policy slippage elevated.

Despite Reforms and Prudence, Nigeria's Economy Will Still Challenge the Government

Snapshots

France

France's Prime Minister Gabriel Attal (C) speaks during the opening session of "Questions to the Prime Minister" at the French National Assembly in Paris, on April 3, 2024.

To right the sinking ship of France's public finances, Paris must implement unpopular economic measures that could lead to government collapse.

France's Budget Troubles Bode Ill for Macron Ahead of EU Elections

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: April 11, 2024

Belarus

Russia

Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko gives a speech during his annual address to the Belarusian People and the National Assembly in Minsk on Jan. 28, 2022.

The upcoming All-Belarusian People's Assembly is poised to deepen Belarus' ties with Russia while also laying the groundwork for President Lukashenko's eventual succession process.

In Belarus, a Congress Will Lock in Integration With Russia -- and Lukashenko's Legacy

A picture taken from the southern Lebanese village of Alma al-Shaab shows smoke rising from an Israeli outpost after a rocket attack by Hezbollah fighters on April 6, 2024.

As the Gaza conflict winds down, both sides will likely eventually seek a diplomatic resolution. But their expanding tit-for-tat exchanges nonetheless risk triggering a wider war.

Israel and Hezbollah Prefer Diplomacy, but Risks of War Remain Elevated

Palestinians walk past damaged buildings in Khan Yunis on April 8, 2024, after Israel pulled its ground forces out of the southern Gaza Strip. 

Israel is shifting to smaller, more targeted operations, but its apparent lack of a long-term governance plan for Gaza will enable Hamas to maintain influence there without fully appeasing Israel's international allies.

The Implications of Israel's Updated Gaza Strategy

Latest

Japan

South Korea

U.S. President Joe Biden (right) and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida shake hands following a joint press conference in the Rose Garden at the White House on April 10, 2024, in Washington, D.C. 

Greater U.S.-Japan defense cooperation will exacerbate China's sense of entrapment, furthering Beijing's partnerships with authoritarian regimes and its long-term preparations for a Taiwan conflict.

Japan-U.S. Relationship Serves as a Model for Indo-Pacific Security, a Bad Omen for China

U.S.-China Relations

A billboard depicting Iranian ballistic missiles pictured April 15, 2024, in Valiasr Square in central Tehran. Iran's attack against Israel and Israel's possible retaliation will increase the likelihood that Tehran will accelerate the development of nuclear weapons.

Iran's attack against Israel and Israel's possible retaliation will increase the likelihood that Tehran will accelerate the development of nuclear weapons.

How Israel's Response to Iran Could Accelerate the Iranian Nuclear Program

U.S.-Iran Relations

Iraq

Jordan

Syria

Yemen

Iran's large missile and drone attack will prompt an Israeli retaliation that will focus on reestablishing deterrence and preventing future similar attacks on Israel, but in doing so, Israel risks expanding the conflict, further sinking the region into turmoil and possibly dragging in the United States.

How Israel Might Respond to the Iranian Attack

India's 2024 general election, which will be held from April 19 to June 1, will likely result in Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party retaining control of the government.

2024 Elections: India

Pakistan

People gather outside the provincial legislature of Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Assembly in Peshawar on Feb. 28, 2024. 

The delay may mar the upper house's credibility and cause political instability, but it is unlikely to significantly impede policymaking.


The Impact of Pakistan's Delayed Senate Formation

United Kingdom

A rendering of Earth from space at night with abstract 5G connection zones. 

Cyber

In the United Kingdom and the United States, a focus on innovation will sideline robust artificial intelligence regulations.

The U.S. and U.K. Ramp Up Innovation-Focused AI Collaboration

Turkey

Opposition supporters celebrate Ekrem Imamoglu's reelection as Istanbul's mayor at the Republican People's Party Istanbul Provincial Directorate on April 1, 2024, in Istanbul, Turkey.

Turkey's government scrambles to recover from a weak performance in the country's municipal elections.

A Strong Performance From the Opposition in Turkey's Municipal Elections Bodes Ill for Erdogan

Haiti

A woman carrying a child runs from an area in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, after hearing gunshots on March 20, 2024.

The Caribbean nation's humanitarian and security crises are set to worsen in the weeks ahead, as gangs seize more territory and the U.N.-backed security deployment faces delays.

In Haiti, Weeks of Extreme Gang Violence Show No Sign of Easing

Ukraine

Afghanistan

Emergency services vehicles are seen outside the burning Crocus City Hall concert hall following a shooting incident in Krasnogorsk, outside Moscow, Russia, on March 22, 2024. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

While the attack was likely conducted by Islamist extremists or North Caucasian groups, the Kremlin will nonetheless use the mass casualty incident to further villainize Ukraine and the West, and expand its war efforts against Kyiv.

What To Make of the Deadly Terrorist Attack in Moscow

10,000 yen notes on Sept. 24, 2022, in Tokyo.

A decision by the Bank of Japan to end negative interest rate and yield curve control policies is meant to reestablish greater monetary policy flexibility.

In a Boost for the Banking Sector, Japan Ends Negative Interest Rates

Columns

On Geopolitics

An F-35C Lightning launches Jan. 6, 2022, off the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson. 

Political, financial and economic constraints will continue to limit the U.S. government's flexibility in adjusting spending, resulting in an ongoing rise in federal debt.

The Ongoing Rise of U.S. Debt Amid Geopolitical, Financial and Economic Constraints

Ultra-Orthodox Jews visit Israeli army soldiers to show their support as they deploy at a position near the border with Gaza in southern Israel on Oct. 11, 2023. 

Whether Israel finally scraps its controversial draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews will hinge largely on the evolution of the country's relationship with its neighbors and rivals in the years ahead.

In Israel, Wartime Realities Renew Scrutiny Over Ultra-Orthodox Military Exemptions

Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners fire in the direction of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region on Feb. 20, 2024. 

The second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Putin's upcoming address to the nation offer an ideal occasion to again consider how Russia has and will continue to change as a result of the war.

The Ukraine War's Impact on Russia, Two Years On

Mexico

Vietnam

In the coming years, rising nationalist and anti-globalization ideologies will likely lead to heightened geopolitical competition and trade/technological fragmentation that will impact relations between countries.

Can Globalization Survive in an Increasingly Fragmented World?

A Palestinian demonstrator waves a flag during confrontations with Israeli troops Jan. 6, 2023, in the West Bank village of Kfar Qaddum, near the Jewish settlement of Kedumim. A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

The Distant Prospect of a Palestinian State

Finland

Sweden

Norway

A heavy-lift helicopter operated by the U.S. military flies over a tank in Setermoen, Norway, during a military exercise involving NATO troops and partner countries on March 22, 2022. 

The U.S.'s new pacts with Sweden, Finland and Denmark signal its intent to play a key role in transforming NATO's approach to securing its northern flank against Russia.

The Significance of U.S. Defense Cooperation Agreements in Northern Europe

Ukrainian servicemen fire with a 105mm howitzer toward Russian positions near the city of Bakhmut on March 8, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine faces immense challenges in 2024 and 2025 that only increased Western support and a new strategy that brings the war inside Russia would be capable of overcoming. 

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: Ukraine's Challenge in 2024 and Beyond

On Security

Argentina

Chile

Costa Rica

Ecuador

Guatemala

Panama

Peru

Policemen guard the car of Mayor Luis Chonillo after an attack on the official May 15, 2023, in Duran, Ecuador. Governments can take steps to stave off a surge in violence, but for many in the region, such measures will be politically and economically out of reach.

Governments can take steps to stave off a surge in violence, but for many in the region, such measures will be politically and economically out of reach.

Forecasting Latin America's Next Crime Hotspot After Ecuador

U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported a 2.3% drop in the number of arrests of migrants entering the country from Mexico from February to March, according to Border Report on April 14.

U.S., Mexico: U.S. Border Arrests Drop From February to March

Haiti established its transitional presidential council on April 12, with Haiti's official gazette publishing a decree announcing the council's formation, Al Jazeera reported on April 13.

Haiti: Transitional Presidential Council Takes Control of Government

Singapore

Singapore announced that Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong will resign in favor of his appointed successor, Finance Minister Lawrence Wong, on May 15, which will make Wong the city-state's fourth prime minister, CNA reported on April 15.

Singapore: Prime Minister To Step Down on May 15

Australia

A lone attacker wielding a knife killed six people at the Westfield Bondi Junction shopping complex in Sydney, Australia, and police killed the attacker on site, The Sydney Morning Herald reported on April 13.

Australia: Sydney Suffers Two Mass Stabbings in Three Days

The U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned Hudhayfa Samir Abdallah al-Kahlut, also known as Abu Ubaida, who leads the cyber influence department of Hamas' military wing in Gaza, The Record reported on April 12.

U.S., Palestinian Territories: Treasury Department Sanctions Hamas Cyber Influence Leader

Lebanon's militant and political group Hezbollah claimed responsibility for an April 14 bomb blast that injured four Israeli soldiers who were seen crossing the Lebanon-Israel border on a reconnaissance operation, The Times of Israel reported on April 15.

Lebanon, Israel: Hezbollah Thwarts Israeli Cross-Border Reconnaissance Operation

Ukraine's top commander Oleksandr Syrsky said that the situation in the East had worsened in recent days as Russia had stepped up efforts to gain ground to the west of occupied Bakhmut in an attempt to capture Chasiv Yar, Reuters reported April 15. 

Ukraine, Russia: Russian Forces Step Up Attacks Around Chasiv Yar 

Science & Technology

North Korea

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits the Vostochny Cosmodrome, a spaceport in Russia's Far East, on Sept. 13, 2023. 

Kim Jong Un appears to be setting a new direction for his country's regional and international policies, clearly aware of the vast uncertainties facing the global geopolitical situation.

North Korea's Foreign Affairs Hit an Inflection Point

Burkina Faso

Mali

South Africa

Hong Kong SAR, China

Taiwan

Poland

Spain

Italy

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Bangladesh

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

Somalia

Pirates liberated the Bangladeshi-flagged MV Abdullah bulk carrier after its owner paid a $5 million ransom, Reuters reported April 14. 

Somalia: MV Abdullah Liberated After Ransom Paid, but Puntland Arrests 8 Pirates

The U.S. House of Representatives plans to vote the week of April 15 on a dozen bills sanctioning Iran and its allies for the April 13 attack on Israel, Axios reported on April 14.

Iran, U.S.: House To Vote on Slew of Iran Sanctions Measures

A large-scale cyberattack has disrupted shared computer servers in at least five municipalities on the west coast of France near the river Loire since April 9, affecting email and phone telecommunications, The Record reported on April 11.

France: Cyberattack Disrupts Servers in Five Municipalities

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Japan-U.S. Relationship Serves as a Model for Indo-Pacific Security, a Bad Omen for China

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Mexico: U.S. Border Arrests Drop From February to March

Haiti: Transitional Presidential Council Takes Control of Government

Singapore: Prime Minister To Step Down on May 15

Australia: Sydney Suffers Two Mass Stabbings in Three Days

U.S., Palestinian Territories: Treasury Department Sanctions Hamas Cyber Influence Leader

Lebanon, Israel: Hezbollah Thwarts Israeli Cross-Border Reconnaissance Operation

Ukraine, Russia: Russian Forces Step Up Attacks Around Chasiv Yar

Somalia: MV Abdullah Liberated After Ransom Paid, but Puntland Arrests 8 Pirates

Iran, U.S.: House To Vote on Slew of Iran Sanctions Measures

France: Cyberattack Disrupts Servers in Five Municipalities

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