Lee Jae-myung and his progressive party will pursue pro-labor domestic policies, along with U.S. tariff relief and improved ties with China and North Korea.

The far-right party's exit from the ruling coalition will likely trigger early elections, leading to a prolonged period of political uncertainty amid complex coalition-building and months of caretaker governance.

The incoming conservative president will likely veto many of the centrist government's domestic reforms, while his euroskeptic views will sustain foreign policy incoherence, potentially undermining Poland's economic outlook and its credibility as a regional leader.

Ukraine's recent string of asymmetric attacks on Russian soil could make Moscow more flexible in negotiations, but it also risks diplomatic blowback that at least temporarily scuttles peace talks.